First of all , with respect to the weekly chart ,

negative case wise,

for equities – Dow Jones has already dip about 2% last week. We are at the 20 MA level. This is the first major support level for DJIA.

If this is broken over the next weeks, we will be looking at another 5% dip to 50 EMA

If this is again broken over the next weeks, we will be looking at 10% dip to 100 EMA

i am not optimistic that we will be looking at another 17.6% dip to 200 EMA as we just recovered from a bear market. Usually it takes about 5-10 years between bear markets.

Of course, there is always the positive case that DJIA can rebound from its 20 EMA level and continue on its bullish run as the 20 / 50/ 100 / 200 EMA levels are still in order and overall trend is still bullish.

similarly for SPX,

negative case wise,

for equities – we are reaching the 20 MA level. This is the first major support level for SPX.

If this is broken over the next weeks, we will be looking at another 8% dip to 50 EMA

If this is again broken over the next weeks, we will be looking at 17% dip to 100 EMA

i am not optimistic that we will be looking to a dip to 200 EMA as we just recovered from a bear market. Usually it takes about 5-10 years between bear markets.

Of course, there is always the positive case that SPX can rebound from its 20 EMA level and continue on its bullish run as the 20 / 50/ 100 / 200 EMA levels are still in order and overall trend is still bullish.

Overall for equities , there are more drivers for negative case over the next few weeks/ months due to the uncertainty of the US debt ceiling . You can read my post here .

The inflation play news has been already trumpeted by main stream media for the large part of this year. The market would already have built in the fact that interest rates are going to go up sooner or later.

whatever it is, the time is closing in on using your warchest for a shopping spree.